Childcare Deserts: Counties Where Affordable Care Doesn't Exist

Defining Childcare Deserts

A childcare desert exists when there are more than three young children for every licensed childcare slot in a geographic area. This definition, established by the Center for American Progress and widely adopted by researchers, captures areas where supply falls so far short of demand that many families simply cannot find care at any price.

Child Care Aware of America reports that the problem has intensified since the pandemic, with an estimated 16,000 childcare providers closing permanently between 2020 and 2023. Many of these closures occurred in areas that were already underserved, turning borderline communities into full deserts.

Where Deserts Are Worst

Rural counties are disproportionately affected. In states like Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota, entire counties have zero licensed childcare providers. Parents in these areas rely entirely on informal care arrangements, including relatives, neighbors, and unlicensed babysitters.

But childcare deserts are not exclusively a rural problem. Low-income urban neighborhoods in cities like Detroit, Cleveland, and Memphis also qualify as deserts. In these areas, childcare providers struggle to charge enough to cover operating costs while serving families who cannot afford market rates. Without adequate subsidy payments, providers in these neighborhoods close at higher rates.

According to CLASP, communities of color are more likely to live in childcare deserts, with Black and Hispanic neighborhoods experiencing provider shortages at nearly twice the rate of predominantly white neighborhoods.

The Economics Behind Deserts

Childcare deserts ultimately result from a broken economic model. Running a childcare center requires significant fixed costs (rent, insurance, licensing) and high variable costs (staff wages for mandated ratios). Unlike most businesses, childcare cannot achieve economies of scale because staff-to-child ratios prevent serving more children without hiring more workers.

The Department of Labor's Women's Bureau has documented that childcare workers earn a median wage of $13.71 per hour, making it one of the lowest-paid occupations in America. This wage is too low to attract and retain qualified workers, yet raising it would make care unaffordable for more families. This tension is at the heart of the childcare worker pay crisis.

Impact on Families and Communities

When families cannot find childcare, the consequences ripple through the economy. Parents, particularly mothers, reduce work hours, turn down promotions, or leave the workforce entirely. The Census Bureau estimates that childcare challenges cost the US economy over $50 billion annually in lost earnings, productivity, and tax revenue.

For rural communities, the lack of childcare can accelerate population decline. Young families move away to find care, employers struggle to recruit workers, and the community loses the tax base needed for schools and services. Some rural economic development organizations now identify childcare as the single most important infrastructure investment for attracting and retaining workers.

Solutions and Interventions

Addressing childcare deserts requires supply-building strategies, not just demand-side subsidies. Some effective approaches include:

• Startup grants, Several states offer grants of $10,000-$50,000 to open new childcare facilities in desert areas
• Shared services networks, Home-based providers share administrative costs like bookkeeping, payroll, and food purchasing
• Employer partnerships, Companies fund childcare slots for employees in partnership with local providers
• Family childcare networks, Organized groups of home-based providers share training, substitutes, and resources
• Childcare cooperatives, Parent-run programs that reduce costs through volunteer labor

The CCDBG now includes supply-building as an allowable use of funds, and several states are directing significant resources toward opening providers in underserved areas. See the most affordable counties to understand where care remains accessible.